Sports Banter

Looking back on last year’s predictions there were something that were obvious and easy to predict and others that left us wondering why we bother with these attempts at the oracle every year in March. The AFL rightly received criticism for its predictability in the second half of 2011 although try telling that to a tipster who got eight right only once last season.

If you can’t get eight tips right with multiple rounds of footy already played how are you supposed to make predictions for an entire season. Human nature is to declare the winners first, however in a bid to improve on my predictions of 2011, this year we can start at the bottom and get some cheap ‘wins’ locked away. Greater Western Sydney will most likely have a name change to drop the Greater before they become great. They are the lock for the wooden spoon.

Second year blues will haunt the Gold Coast (17^th) more than I think they and perhaps other pundits will expect. Besides, Port Adelaide have shown enough pre-season to suggest they will not be the basket cases they were last year.

Here is where it gets tricky. Immediately you want look to the teams from last year who were propping up the competition table and the obvious question hits you. How much longer can the Lions, Dees, Tigers and Roos continue to not be in the finals? And worse, without priority picks to tank, sorry be eligible for, surely there is more benefit for these clubs to strive to win at all costs?

Every year there are clubs that come from nowhere to make their way into a surprise finals spot. Think West Coast last year. The problem being that requires a team or teams to drop from last year. Here is the first big call. Western Bulldogs (16^th) will have a bad year and St Kilda (15^th) won’t be much better. Both have new coaches and new game plans to play.

Brisbane (14^th) seem to rely overly on Jonathan Brown but with him having missed so much football they should be used to it by now. With him back on the park that should be a couple more wins than last year and signs of improvement for 2013 to come.

Pre-season form can mean something if you are winning and mean you are ‘trying things’ if you are losing. I have jumped on board the winning and promise that Port Adelaide (13^th) have shown this summer and really – they can’t be that bad again.

If the final eight becomes a final 10 then we can assume Richmond (12^th) will have a mortgage on 11^th although they will even be that good this year. Sure the Tigers are coming and will improve but its very difficult fitting 14 teams into eight – someone has to miss out. Richmond are good at it so what is the difference between ninth and 12^th anyway.

In a complete contradiction to my assessment of Port’s preseason form I can’t say the same will be the case for the NAB Cup premiers Adelaide (11^th). It will probably take a finals place this year for Adelaide to feature in my preseason finalists next year. At this stage they miss out.

Two days ago when drafting this, North Melbourne (10^th) were in the eight. Then a friend alerted me to the fact that the Demons had a very solid list and probably just needed a coach that wasn’t trying to play kids for the future. The problem being that Melbourne (9^th) still have a light midfield and more importantly still have better teams ahead of them.

If you thought the Saints and Dogs were surprises, here is the next one. The team that replaced North in the eight are last year’s premiers. Geelong (8^th), despite being the supreme team of the past half-decade they surely have to fall at some time. Brisbane fell in the fifth year after making the Grand final, its Geelong’s 6^th since their first Premiership of the era, 2012 is not the year of the cat.

Essendon (7^th) were impressive last year under James Hird and despite most thinking it will be second year blues of their renaissance, the Bombers will climb one more place on last year. Keeping them out of a home final will be Sydney (6^th) who seem to be getting better each year but will fall short of the double change this year.

West Coast (6^th) were the surprise climber of last season managing to sneak into the four and whilst there is every chance they will do it again, we have to remember just how good their veterans were last year. Two years in a row seems a more difficult prospect.

If sides are to climb then that means sides have to drop. Last week Collingwood (4^th) were missing the four, but like the prospect of Geelong missing the eight, it was hard to seethe Pies, with so many top line players, missing the double chance. However they will lose enough games to make the four no sure thing until late in the season.

The bolter of the season will be the subterfuge coach himself, Ross Lyon and his Fremantle (3^rd) outfit. The Dockers were expected to make the grade in 2011 but were cruelled by a big toe of a giant plus all the other injuries that led to Mark Harvey who had a date for the ball only to watch as the more credentialed jock took her home at midnight.

The arrogance is back at Visy Park as Carlton (2^nd) continues their improvement trajectory towards a double chance and home final in 2012. Which leaves the obvious pick of Hawthorn (1^st) for the minor Premiership.

Ah you say, he has just written the final positions after the home and away matches. That’s right, a Collingwood versus Carlton preliminary final awaits us in September with the Pies to play the Hawks in the Grand Final. What was everyone saying about ‘Kiribilli agreements’ not working….

1. Hawthorn
2. Carlton
3. Fremantle
4. Collingwood
5. West Coast
6. Sydney
7. Essendon
8. Geelong
9. North Melbourne
10. Melbourne
11. Adelaide
12. Richmond
13. Port Adelaide
14. Brisbane
15. St Kilda
16. Western Bulldogs
17. Gold Coast
18. GWS 

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The signing of James McDonald to Greater Western Sydney is a great story for football. It’s a story that should have been more prevalent with the Gold Coast when they entered the competition this year. Only Daniel Harris of the Sun’s mature recruits had been out of the system for a year, had played more than 100 games of AFL yet still managed to return to their list.

McDonald, the former Melbourne captain will join the Giants next year as a player coach. With the potential of a further announcement soon regarding Luke Power joining in a similar role, it’s a positive move by the Giants. A couple of senior experienced bodies and respected leaders with their former AFL clubs, mixed with the younger uncontracted recruits (Scully, Ward, Davis, Palmer) and drafted teenagers is a great formula. The elder players can be on the field teaching what will still be a very young side.

Despite turning 35 in October this year McDonald will be an invaluable addition to GWS. Commentating many of his appearances for Old Xavierians in the Victorian Amateur Football Association (VAFA) on Melbourne Radio Station 96.5 Inner FM I have watched first hand the leadership, ball winning ability and decision making in traffic as McDonald and Xavierians cut up opposition on their march to the finals.

Unfortunately McDonald won’t be playing in Sunday’s Grand Final. Old Xav’s lost their Preliminary Final last Sunday and McDonald misses the chance to add to the VAFA premiership he won with the club back in 1996.

McDonald’s signing is also a tribute to the standard of football being played in the Victorian Amateur Football Association. Recently a friend who has strong connections with one of the prominent suburban semi-professional leagues in Melbourne came to a game of amateur football and commented that football on display was of superior quality than their league.

Whilst many predict the Giants will struggle to replicate what the Suns did this year in winning three games, it might be worth considering that the Giants could in fact do better. The Giants have had the chance to sit back and watch the way the Suns have gone about this year.

The Giants won’t make the finals next year, but it is exciting to see what they will be able to do when they officially become the 18^th team in the national competition of the AFL. With names like McDonald in the team they will learn very quickly.

Finally if you have time at 2pm on Sunday 18th September, come down to Sportscover Arena in Elsternwick, Melbourne to watch this year's VAFA Premier Grand Final between Collegians and St Bedes Mentone Tigers, to watch some high quality local football. If you can't get there, tune in to 96.5 Inner FM or stream it on the net here. 

Lenny

In this world of new born clubs there is something slightly more ominous about the Greater Western Sydney Giants than their older sibling Gold Coast Suns and for that we can thank Kevin Sheedy being at the helm. The AFL’s appointment of Sheedy as inaugural coach of the Giants is a masterstroke. That he has already riled enough people internally and externally of the Australian Football League to regularly make front page news (in Sydney) is to consider the appointment already a success.

The contempt building for the Giants from fans of clubs whose players are targets and from fans of rugby league for daring to pinch players and suggest they can make a statement in the heartland has built an identity for a club that had none.

Having a culture is what is important for a football club and if the rest of the country is ganging up on Western Sydney – both the club and the location – as Eddie McGuire alluded to on his radio program this week, then this might help the locals of that region get behind their team and area by supporting the club.

Which uncontracted players move to Sydney will be interesting, but the feeling is that the buying power in terms of dollars is more than what the Gold Coast offered and the targeted players are of no less pedigree than Gary Ablett was before he took the money and the challenge of moving north.

Melbourne’s second year player and former number one draft pick Tom Scully will most likely stay at his club, but uncertainty looms over the targeted big three at Collingwood. Dane Swan, Scott Pendlebury and Dale Thomas have all been identified targets by Sheedy and it wouldn’t be surprising to see one of them depart at the end of this year.

Collingwood is in a slightly different position to that of Melbourne. The players have played in a premiership and may win another this year, so that box is ticked. The money will no doubt be attractive and despite the media’s dismissal last year of Ablett identifying the challenge as an attraction, there is merit in a gun player wanting the challenge to be involved in a start-up club.

Despite this though, the telling possibility for one of these players to sign with the Giants is at the end of this year Mick Malthouse will no longer be coaching the Magpies. The three mentioned targets all played with their future coach Nathan Buckley and their relationships with him might determine if they stay or not. It is an unusual one.

The players love Malthouse, know his game plan and will in many ways start again under Buckley. If players are to re-adjust to a new coach and new game plan why not do it with double the money and the captaincy of a new club in your back pocket as well. Beware for the swooping Magpie Giant in the early weeks of October.